The EU and Poland are currently are loggerheads and the situation is only getting worse, with each side not wanting to budge. Poland has declared its laws supreme, while the EU claims its laws supersede Poland’s constitution. What next?
There are 3 possible outcomes:
- the EU backs down
- Poland backs down
- Neither backs down, sanctions, threats and ultimately a Polexit.
Let’s look at the first option.
EU backs down
The EU can blow a lot of hot air, make threats and ultimately backtrack on what it says. There has been a lot of this with Brexit and the Irish Protocol. But it cannot happen here with Poland because the issue is so fundamental to the EU. Its laws are supposed to override any member’s laws – it’s one of its core principles. I don’t see how the EU can change that in any way. It is always possible, as a compromise of course, and will be how the EU will back down on this issue, but I think it is unlikely.
PL backs down
How likely is it for Poland to kneel to the EU? The stakes are high – billions of euros from the EU being withheld, more sanctions threatened… If it was any other country, between the EU and that country I would have bet on the country falling into line. But not Poland, despite all those sanctions. Why?
For a start, if the EU throws too many sanctions at it and cuts off the flow of money, the Poles won’t see any advantage to staying in the EU and that further pushes the case for option #3. So the EU won’t want to push too hard and therefore it’s less likely for Poland to back down.
More importantly, I never see Poland backing down on this issue because it is also a core principle for them. The Poles have suffered at the hand of the Nazis, under the Soviets and their country prior to that had been partitioned by foreign powers for over a century. This has made Polish people extremely patriotic. The Poles I do know are proud of their country, and why not?
While apparently over 80% of Poles want to stay in the EU, I’m sure the majority will put Poland first before the EU, especially if the EU is applying sanctions against Poland. I cannot imagine Polish people accepting the EU to rule over them, if put that way.
The only circumstance I see in which Poland will back down is if the current government is replaced soon and the new government bows deeply to the EU, perhaps with the previous EU leader and current opposition leader Donald Tusk at its head. I don’t know enough Polish politics to predict how likely this is.
Polexit
If the EU cannot compromise, if Poland will not compromise, then the only option left is for the two to split up. This is not an issue that can be brushed under the carpet.
Neither side currently wants the other to leave. The EU does not even have a mechanism to eject its members. Plus it already lost the UK. Losing another big member (in terms of population size) may kickstart a domino effect. The EU really really doesn’t want this to happen. But it also wants to reign supreme.
Poland doesn’t want to leave… because it gets lot of money from the EU. Polish people have also benefited greatly by being able to work abroad. But if the EU closes the money tap and applies more sanctions, then there is little attraction for the Poles to stay in the EU club.
The outcome
Something has to give, and this issue cannot be a can kicked down the road. We’ve seen that the EU CANNOT compromise on its core value and PL WILL NOT compromise on its sovereignty. Both don’t want a split but when the pressure will mount on both sides, I believe this will be the only outcome. The Poles will become more nationalist by day as the EU will try to bully them into submission. Suddenly, it won’t look so terrible anymore to be out of the EU, compared to being on the naughty step within the EU.
The threat of Russia further east is countenanced by the fact that out of the EU doesn’t mean out of NATO – this remains unchanged. In fact, Germany is laying in bed with the Russians when it comes to the new gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea, something which Poland is bitterly opposed to. Germany and Russia, does that ring a bell? One does not forget the Secret Protocol of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, even after all these years, and even if DE and PL are both EU members. So, of what use is EU membership for PL in this case if its two nemeses are joining forces?
Poland doesn’t want to leave the EU, but when it will because of pressure, I don’t think it will go quietly. In fact I think this sovereignty issue will blow up in the EU’s face and cause its fracture as other countries join in the mêlée. And I predict this will happen within 5 years.
The Fall of the Berlin Wall in Germany is remembered as the symbol of the fall of the Iron Curtain, but it is Poland which brought down the Iron Curtain and the Soviets. Will history repeat itself, will Poland bring down the European Union this time?
